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New Tundra a challenge for Toyota

The new Tundra, which will be built in Princeton, Ind., and at a plant in San Antonio, Texas, that should open next month, will be larger and more powerful than its predecessor. Toyota officials have said they expect to sell 200,000 by next year.

"We want to double our sales, so we have to have a pretty aggressive message to bring to our customers," Don Esmond, senior vice president of Toyota Motor Sales, said during a visit to Louisville this month.

But early 2007 may be the worst time in years to launch a redesigned pickup.

In recent months, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler Group have all cut pickup production because of falling sales. While commercial pickups are still selling, the large group of buyers who bought the vehicles for their looks are fleeing the market in droves, analysts and automakers have said.

"I'm not sure that Toyota really does understand the truck market," said Art Spinella, president of CNW Marketing/Research in Bandon, Ore.

Spinella said most pickup buyers fall into five distinct categories, and Toyota only has the ability to serve two of them:

Fashion buyers. "They use the bed of the pickup for empty beer cans," Spinella said.

Toyota may do well here, but appearance buyers are declining faster than any other group.

Contractors. From landscapers to plumbers to carpenters, people who need to move large tools and building materials around need trucks.

Toyota may do well here because many contractors started out using Toyota's smaller Tacoma pickups and have some fondness for the automaker. On the other hand, contractors are suffering nationwide as home sales fall. Many may be reluctant to buy new vehicles, Spinella said.

Fleet buyers. Companies that need dozens or even hundreds of vehicles tend to buy in bulk and get big discounts.

"They don't care whose name is on it. They need a per-unit price that's as low as possible," Spinella said. Toyota could compete in that market, but steep discounting would hurt resale values, and Toyota generally avoids big fleet sales.

Toy haulers. People who want to tow boats, recreational vehicles and horse trailers need big trucks.

But so far, Toyota is not offering a diesel engine, a must for the towing market, Spinella said. "They're not going to buy the new Tundra unless you have a big, honking diesel in it."

Farmers/ranchers. Buyers in this market also need a vehicle that tows, and it must be able to drive off-road.

Spinella said the lack of a diesel engine and Toyota's lack of rural dealerships could hurt it with this market.

"Without the diesel, they really have no way of getting to a quarter million (sales by 2009) ??¦ unless they go heavily into fleet and discount like crazy," he said.

Esmond said Toyota expects about 35 percent of its buyers (the largest single group) will be image customers. It expects about 32 percent of its sales to come from contractors and work-truck buyers.

Spinella said getting that many work-truck buyers will be difficult as they tend to be loyal to Ford, GM or Dodge.

Still, doubling Tundra sales may not be an impossible dream, said John Casesa, president of New York research firm Casesa Strategic Advisors.

The lack of a diesel engine and the weakness of the truck market will make it difficult for Toyota to reach that goal, he said, but "the odds of outright failure are still low."

The last automaker to challenge Ford, GM and Chrysler in pickups was Nissan Motor Co. with its new Titan pickup in 2003. Nissan had hoped to sell about 100,000 vehicles per year, but sold only 86,945 in 2005, the Titan's best year. Through August of this year, Titan sales are down 17.2 percent.

Analysts point out that Toyota is in a better position to succeed in large pickups than Nissan was. For one thing, Toyota has been selling the Tundra since 1999. While earlier versions were smaller than its competitors, the upcoming model won't be.

Toyota plans for the new Tundra to go on sale in February.

Reporter Robert Schoenberger can be reached at (502) 582-4669.

Louisville Courier-Journal



New Tundra a challenge for Toyota
Japanese Import Car, New & Used Car, 2007